Banks、TSMC、Netflix set to release financial report soon

  • For Q4 2024, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 11.9%. If 11.9% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth reported by the index since Q4 2021, according to FactSet data. It will also mark the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.

  • 7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth. 6 sectors are predicted to report double-digit growth as in the following figure. The Financials sector is expected to report the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all eleven sectors at 39.5%. On the other hand, 4 sectors are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings. Among that, Energy sector is projected to report a double-digit decline.

(Source: FactSet)

  • In terms of revenues, analysts estimate the S&P 500 will report (year-over-year) revenue growth of 4.6%. If 4.6% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 17th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.

  • January earnings to kick off the new year with banks. The banks industry is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the financial sector. Morgan Stanley expects robust capital markets revenues in 4Q24, particularly in trading and equity capital markets. In trading, US equities volumes were up 15% y/y in October, up 32% in November and up 13% y/y in December. Capital markets bullish that drive operating leverage as incremental capital markets revenues comes with a flat to lower comp ratio and a lower non-comp expense ratio.

  • As of January 6, the 10 year Treasury yield is currently even higher at 4.63%. Steeper curve will benefit NIMs as banks can offer deposits at lower yields and invest in duration at higher yields. Especially, a steeper curve are banks that are liability sensitive like USB or banks that have the largest securities rolls, like the trust banks. With budget season over, the major banks will provide some form of 2025 guidance during January earnings.

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Earnings Calendar

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Tips for Earnings Preview

How to deal with earnings volatility for your holding stocks?

  • When holding profitable stocks ahead of their earnings reports, investors may be concerned about potential profit reduction due to a decline in stock prices post-earnings. In such cases, instead of immediately selling the stocks, investors can consider buying put options to form a "stock + protective put option" combination. If the stock price falls after the result, the increase in the put option price partially hedges the decline in the stock price. Once the stock price reaches the strike price of the put option, the stock will be sold through exercising the option, thereby realizing profit-taking or limiting losses on the stock.

  • When holding profitable stocks and willing to take profits, investors can also utilize options for profit-taking. By selling covered calls, investors can not only take profits on the stock but also earn additional option premium income. Specifically, selling call options equal to the number of shares held to form a "covered call" combination. It's important to set the strike price for selling the call option at a level where you are willing to take profits on the stock (usually above the current stock price). If the stock rises to the strike price of the option on the expiration date, it will be sold through exercising the option, and as the option seller, you receive the option premium. With the upcoming earnings season, due to the increase in implied volatility of options, option premiums are usually quite substantial.

  • Combining the above two strategies, investors can also adopt a strategy that combines both: the Collar strategy, which involves a "stock + sell covered call + buy protective put option" combination. The Collar strategy combines the downside protection of protective put options and the profit potential of covered call options. The premium received from selling covered call options can be used to offset the cost of buying protective put options, resulting in a costless hedged combination of options.

Goldman Sachs recommends straddle option strategy for April earnings season

Straddle options are commonly used to speculate on earnings because it's a non-directional strategy, involving buying both call and put options. As long as the stock price moves significantly, the gains on one side cover the costs on both sides and generate additional profits.

Goldman Sachs once again recommends straddle options for the upcoming earnings season. Goldman Sachs has released a list of 20 companies, believing that investors are underestimating the earnings day volatility of these targets.

Strategies for limited upside movement

If you think a stock has already risen a lot and it won't rise much further, how can you do? Utilize the limited upside strategy recommended by UBS, known as a Call Spread. This involves buying one call option and then selling another call option with the same expiration date but a higher strike price, forming a Buy Call + Sell Call strategy. Essentially, this strategy bets on a limited increase in stock price. The premium earned from selling the call option partially offsets the premium paid for buying the call option, reducing the overall cost of the position. Additionally, this combination helps lower the margin requirement in practice.

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Not financial advice. Investing in financial products may carry the inherent risk of loss. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.