For Q4 2024, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 11.9%. If 11.9% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth reported by the index since Q4 2021, according to FactSet data. It will also mark the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.
7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth. 6 sectors are predicted to report double-digit growth as in the following figure. The Financials sector is expected to report the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all eleven sectors at 39.5%. On the other hand, 4 sectors are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings. Among that, Energy sector is projected to report a double-digit decline.
(Source: FactSet)
In terms of revenues, analysts estimate the S&P 500 will report (year-over-year) revenue growth of 4.6%. If 4.6% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 17th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.
January earnings to kick off the new year with banks. The banks industry is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the financial sector. Morgan Stanley expects robust capital markets revenues in 4Q24, particularly in trading and equity capital markets. In trading, US equities volumes were up 15% y/y in October, up 32% in November and up 13% y/y in December. Capital markets bullish that drive operating leverage as incremental capital markets revenues comes with a flat to lower comp ratio and a lower non-comp expense ratio.
As of January 6, the 10 year Treasury yield is currently even higher at 4.63%. Steeper curve will benefit NIMs as banks can offer deposits at lower yields and invest in duration at higher yields. Especially, a steeper curve are banks that are liability sensitive like USB or banks that have the largest securities rolls, like the trust banks. With budget season over, the major banks will provide some form of 2025 guidance during January earnings.