North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Fall, Bonds Rally as Investors Negotiate Market Turmoil

Dow Jones
04 Apr

OPENING CALL

Stock futures pointed to further losses as investors continue to digest the fallout of President Trump's tariff day .

Investors ramped up bets on significant rate cuts this year, expecting action from the Federal Reserve to shore up the U.S. economy.

Benchmark Treasury yields fell below 4% for the first time since October on fears of a recession, with investors seeking safety in government bonds .

Jobs data due at 0830 ET is likely to be overshadowed by tariff fallout, CMC Markets said.

Stocks to Watch

Apple fell 0.8%, extending a hit it took on Thursday due to its dependence on Chinese manufacturing. The country was taregted heavily with tariffs.

Tesla declined 1% after a 5.5% slump on Thursday.

Nvidia rose 0.3%, reboundig slightly from a 7.8% fall yesterday. Fellow chip makers Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm, and Broadcom were flat to lower

Dell Technologies was down 0.3% following a 19% fall on Thursday.

Intel rose 0.8% after a report that it and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reached a preliminary agreement to form a joint venture to operate Intel's chipmaking.

GameStop rose 4% after CEO Ryan Cohen increased his stake in the videogame retailer.

Affirm fell 0.7% and PayPal declined 1.2% following steep declines on Thursday.

Watch For:

Employment Report for March; Canada Labour Force Survey for March

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- A Market-Rattling Attempt to Make the American Economy Trump Always Wanted

- The Rest of the World Is Bracing for a Flood of Cheap Chinese Goods

- U.S. to Press Iran for Direct Nuclear Talks

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar remained weak after the DXY index slumped to a six-month low on Thursday.

"The erratic nature of U.S. trade policy undermined investor confidence, " IG analysts said, noting that this has sparked fears of "a massive reallocation of capital away from U.S. markets."

The euro rose against the dollar, proving the surprise beneficiary in the tariff aftermath as investors pull out of risky assets, ING said.

Sterling extended Thursday's fall against the euro, as the latter has better liquidity during this time of substantial volatility, ING added. It also reflects investors changing their previous view that U.K. interest rates would stay higher relative to other major economies.

Bonds:

Treasurys continued to rally, with prices rising and yields falling as investors remain on the side of caution awaiting the economic impact of tariffs.

"The solid rally is an indication that investors are more worried about a recession in the U.S. economy relative to the rising inflation due to the tariffs," Danske Bank Research said.

Energy:

Oil prices were headed for a weekly loss of more than 5%.

Key downside risks to oil prices--tariff increases and somewhat higher OPEC+ supply--are being realized, Goldman Sachs said, cutting its average annual oil demand growth forecasts by nearly 400,000 bbls/day for 2025 and 500,000 bbls/day for 2026.

Oil and gas have been exempted from the new round of tariffs, but traders fear the policies could raise inflation and slow global economic growth , ultimately hurting demand for crude, BMI said.

OPEC+'s larger-than-expected supply increase for May is likely to widen the Brent-Dubai spread, Middle Eastern crude more attractive to Asian buyers, NG noted.

Rystad Energy said oil's recent downturn is expected to be short-lived due to anticipated summer demand and persistent geopolitical risks.

Metals:

Gold futures slid, but held close to record highs in volatile trading amid wider market turmoil.

The selloff on Thursday following tariff announcements creates a more attractive entry point for investors to take a long position, Goldman Sachs said.

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

AppLovin Confirms Indication of Interest in TikTok Purchase

AppLovin confirmed that it has expressed interest in acquiring TikTok in all markets outside of China to President Trump as the deadline to sell or shut the social-media app approaches.

The mobile advertising technology company on Thursday said that the indication of interest it provided is preliminary.

   
 
 

BP Chair Helge Lund to Step Down Amid Push for Changes at Oil Major

BP's Chairman Helge Lund will step down sometime next year, as activist investor Elliott Management pushes for changes at the British oil major.

The British energy company said Friday that it has started the search for Lund's replacement, whom he will work with to ensure an orderly transition process.

   
 
 

Shell to Sell Its Interest in Colonial Enterprises to Brookfield for $1.45 Billion

Shell said it would sell its 16.125% stake in Colonial Enterprises to Brookfield Infrastructure Partners for $1.45 billion as it continues to simplify is portfolio.

The British energy major said the sale is subject to regulatory approvals but is expected to complete in the fourth quarter of the year.

   
 
 

Santander Confirms Guidance After First-Quarter Growth

Santander said it expects to report growth for the first quarter of 2025 and confirmed its guidance for the year.

The Spanish bank should deliver a return on tangible equity of around 15.7% for the first three months and is on track to reach its 16.5% target for the year, it said in a statement ahead of its annual general meeting on Friday. This compares with 15.5% RoTE for 2024, according to a spokesperson.

   
 
 

Volvo to Increase Mexican Factory Investment to $1 Billion, Minister Says

Volvo will increase its investment in a truck factory it is building in Mexico to $1 billion, the country's economy minister said Friday.

Marcelo Ebrard said in a post on X that he had been informed by Volvo headquarters in Sweden of the planned investment, which represents a rise from the $700 million Volvo had originally earmarked for the project.

   
 
 

Resistance Is Futile, Make a Deal: Trump's Tariff Message to the World

Leaders from Canada, Europe and China are threatening stiff countermeasures against the U.S. in response to President Trump's surprisingly steep tariffs on nearly all imports. The administration's response is, don't even think about it.

Trump is trying to short-circuit the trade war's cycle of retaliation by threatening massive new tariffs on any country that responds, and by dangling the prospect of a better deal for those who hold their fire and negotiate. The highest tariffs-the so-called reciprocal duties for many countries with goods-trade imbalances with the U.S.-don't go into effect until Wednesday, giving world leaders time to plead their cases with a president who considers himself a master dealmaker.

   
 
 

RBA Has Chance to Catch Up and Respond to Global Storms

SYDNEY-The Reserve Bank of Australia missed a golden opportunity to shine this week when it kept interest rates on hold instead of responding meaningfully to the fire storm that now envelops the global economy and international markets.

It should have cut interest rates to make policy settings less restrictive, providing a buffer to the economy and confidence, instead of fussing about fading inflation risks while steering the bank wide of potential political entanglements ahead of a federal election on May 3.

   
 
 

German Factory Orders Stagnated in February Despite Hints of Frontloading

German factory orders stagnated in February, a weaker-than-expected reading despite signs of frontloading ahead of tariffs that have roiled markets in recent days.

Manufacturing orders were unchanged on month in the second month of this year, after a 5.5% slump in January, German statistics agency Destatis said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a 3.5% uptick.

   
 
 

Trump Fires Director of National Security Agency

WASHINGTON-Gen. Tim Haugh, the chief of the National Security Agency, was fired Thursday at the direction of the White House, according to people familiar with the matter.

Haugh, who jointly helms U.S. Cyber Command, the military's combatant command for offensive use of cyberattacks, was informed by the White House that his services were no longer required, the people said, adding that his civilian deputy at the NSA, Wendy Noble, was also removed from her position, though she was reassigned to a job within the Pentagon.

   
 
 

Write to don.forbes@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Corus Entertainment Inc. 2Q

Economic Indicators $(ET)$:

0830 Labour Force Survey for March

Stocks to Watch:

Velan Completed Permanent Divestiture of Asbestos-Related Liabilities to an Affil of Global Risk Cap; Divested Asbestos-Related Liabilities at a Cost to the Co of Approximately $143M

Fitch Affirms and Withdraws Rogers Communications' Ratings

Shell to Sell Interest in Colonial Enterprises; to Sell 16.125% Interest in Colonial Enterprises; to Sell 16.125% Interest in Colonial Enterprises for $1.45B; Sale Reflects Focus on Performance, Discipline and Simplification; Sale Expected to Close in 4Q

   
 
 

Expected Major Events for Friday

02:00/JPN: Mar Imported Vehicle Sales

06:00/GER: Feb Manufacturing orders

06:00/GER: Feb Manufacturing turnover

06:45/FRA: Feb Industrial production index

08:00/UK: Mar UK monthly car registrations figures

08:00/ITA: Feb Retail Sales

08:30/UK: Mar S&P Global UK Construction PMI

09:00/ITA: 4Q General Government Quarterly Accounts

12:30/CAN: Mar Labour Force Survey

12:30/US: Mar U.S. Employment Report

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

   
 
 

Expected Earnings for Friday

Adverum Biotechnologies Inc $(ADVM)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Alaunos Therapeutics Inc (TCRT) is expected to report for 4Q.

American Shared Hospital Services $(AMS.UK)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Arena Group Holdings Inc $(AREN.AU)$ is expected to report for 4Q.

Avenue Therapeutics Inc (ATXI) is expected to report for 4Q.

Camber Energy Inc (CEIN) is expected to report for 4Q.

Digital Ally Inc (DGLY) is expected to report for 4Q.

Dixie Group Inc (DXYN) is expected to report for 4Q.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

April 04, 2025 06:08 ET (10:08 GMT)

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