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Apple
What happened? On Monday, Keybanc upgraded Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) to Sector Weight without a price target.
*TLDR: Tariff relief eases Apple’s risks. Keybanc stays cautious.
What’s the full story? Keybanc leans back, its pensiveness tinged with cautious optimism. The bank sees Apple’s exemption from smartphone tariffs as a sigh of relief—a best-case scenario that likely wipes out its prior downside target. The worst-case specter of a trade war escalation? Gone. For now. But Keybanc isn’t popping champagne. “Apple’s not out of the woods,” it warns, its tone measured yet firm. Consumer spending remains shaky, AI ambitions underwhelming, and the Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) DOJ lawsuit looms like a dark cloud. The bank’s downside thesis may have played out, but complacency isn’t on the menu.
Still, the tariff exemption shifts the narrative. It’s a tailwind, a risk off the table, and a reason to pause before betting against Apple further. Keybanc doesn’t sugarcoat it: growth expectations for FY26 remain high, perhaps too high, and AI progress is still more promise than reality. But with the tariff threat neutralized, the bank finds it hard to justify a bearish stance.
For now, Apple gets a reprieve—not a victory, but a chance to regroup. And Keybanc? It watches, waits, and keeps its powder dry.
Coty Inc .
What happened? On Tuesday, BofA double downgraded Coty Inc (NYSE:COTY) to Underperform with a $4.50 price target.
*TLDR: BofA downgrades COTY amid slowing growth. Consumer weakness stifles beauty momentum.
What’s the full story? BofA shifts gears, downgrading COTY to Underperform from Buy. The bank sees trouble brewing as growth slows and valuations for both the Prestige and Consumer Beauty businesses take a hit. While COTY has ridden the wave of Prestige fragrance sales—56% of its revenue—BofA tempers its optimism. Global market share declines and weakening consumer spending cast a shadow over the once-bright outlook.
In Consumer Beauty, the bank anticipates continued market share erosion, with stabilization as the best-case scenario. Despite strides made since COTY unveiled its six strategic pillars in 2021, BofA warns of looming challenges. Headwinds in mass-market beauty and a sluggish global economy weigh on fragrance and Prestige categories. Hopes pinned on skincare and China have faltered, with macro conditions—notably a steep consumer slowdown in China—stifling growth. The Lancôme Lancaster Ligne Princière launch? A case study in unfortunate timing.
BofA doesn’t sugarcoat it: COTY’s path forward is rougher than expected. The bank sees a company caught between slowing demand and unfulfilled promises, struggling to maintain momentum in an unforgiving market.
Cloudflare Inc .
What happened? On Wednesday, Mizuho upgraded Cloudflare Inc (NYSE:NET) to Outperform with a $135 price target.
*TLDR: Mizuho upgrades NET, bullish on AI. Stock dip creates buying opportunity.
What’s the full story? Mizuho struts in with an upgrade for Cloudflare (NET), because why not? The analysts’ recent checks reveal pipelines thicker than a Wall St trader’s neck, large deals popping off like champagne corks, and Workers AI gaining traction faster than a meme stock. NET’s scalable architecture and innovation cult? The analysts are into it. AI inferencing? They’re downright bullish. Sure, the macro backdrop looks like a dumpster fire, but NET’s multi-year acceleration story? That’s the kind of hopium Mizuho can’t resist.
The stock’s down 38% since February—because, of course, the market loves to punish good stories—but Mizuho sees an attractive risk/reward setup. Outperform it is, though they trim the price target to $135 (down from $140) because comp multiples are contracting faster than a hedge fund’s confidence. The takeaway? NET’s not just surviving; it’s thriving—and Mizuho’s here for the show.
Fiserv
What happened? On Thursday, Redburn-Atlantic downgraded Fiserv Inc (NYSE:FI) to Sell with a $150 price target.
*TLDR: Redburn-Atlantic downgrades Fiserv, citing structural risks. Growth narrative faces skepticism.
What’s the full story? Redburn-Atlantic takes a contrarian stance, downgrading Fiserv to Sell—a move that might seem out of step in today’s macro climate. At first glance, Fiserv’s reliance on large, non-discretionary merchants like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) suggests resilience. But the brokerage argues this is a mirage. Most of Fiserv’s growth springs from smaller, discretionary merchants, whose higher take rates drive net revenue far more than their larger counterparts. The cyclical, Redburn-Atlantic notes, will expose the structural.
The brokerage’s downgrade hinges on two key concerns within Fiserv’s Merchant Solutions segment: Clover and the Enterprise offering. Together, these account for roughly 60% of the company’s future growth. Redburn-Atlantic sees cracks in the foundation, suggesting Fiserv’s growth narrative may not hold up under scrutiny.
For now, the brokerage remains skeptical, watching as the story unfolds.
Friday - US Markets Closed
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