2025 年指引

- BP 預計，相較 2024 年，報告的上游產量將下降，基礎上游產量將略有下降。其中，BP 預計石油生產和運營的基礎產量基本保持穩定，天然氣和低碳能源的產量將下降。

- 在客戶業務中，BP 預計其客戶業務將增長，包括 BP 生物能源的全年貢獻及部分受美國貨運衰退後的部分恢復支持下，TravelCenters of America 的更高貢獻。收入增長預計受結構性成本降低的支持。BP 繼續預計燃料利潤率將對供應成本保持敏感，收入實現對美元的相對強勢仍然敏感。

- 在產品方面，BP 預計 2025 年相較 2024 年煉油利潤率基本持平，並且基礎表現更強勁，因爲惠廷煉油廠沒有發生全廠電力中斷，且整個產品組合的改進計劃發揮作用。BP 預計類似水平的煉油廠大修活動，大修活動的時間分佈在 2025 年的前半年，第二季度影響最大。

- BP 預計其他業務和公司的基礎年度費用約爲 10 億美元，季度費用可能有所波動。

- BP 預計 2025 年折舊、耗減和攤銷與 2024 年相比基本保持不變。

- BP 預計 2025 年的基礎有效稅率（ETR）約爲 40%，但它對環境價格波動及其對集團利潤和虧損地理分佈的影響等多種因素非常敏感。

- BP 預計，2025 年的資產出售和其他收益約爲 30 億美元，並在下半年權重較大。自 2020 年第二季度以來，BP 實現了 220 億美元的資產出售和其他收益，BP 繼續預計 2020 年下半年至 2025 年間的資產出售和其他收益將達到 250 億美元。

- BP 預計，2025 年的墨西哥灣和解支付總額約爲 12 億美元，稅前支付總額包括第二季度支付的 11 億美元。

2025 guidance 

• bp expects reported upstream* production to be lower and underlying upstream production* to be slightly lower compared with 2024. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be broadly flat and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower. 

• In its customers business, bp expects growth in its customers businesses including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy and a higher contribution from TravelCenters of America in part supported by a partial recovery from the US freight recession. Earnings growth is expected to be supported by structural cost reduction. bp continues to expect fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply and earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative strength of the US dollar. 

• In products, bp expects broadly flat refining margins relative to 2024 and stronger underlying performance underpinned by the absence of the plant-wide power outage at Whiting refinery, and improvement plans across the portfolio. bp expects similar levels of refinery turnaround activity, with phasing of turnaround activity in 2025 heavily weighted towards the first half, with the highest impact in the second quarter. 

• bp expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2025. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter. 

• bp expects the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be broadly flat compared with 2024. 

• bp expects the underlying ETR* for 2025 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group's profits and losses. 

• bp expects divestment and other proceeds to be around $3 billion in 2025 weighted towards the second half. Having realized $22.0 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025. 

• bp expects Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax to be paid during the second quarter.