JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs are scheduled to kick start fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 15., while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will come out with its performance details on Jan. 16.

JPMorgan's Momentum Supports Leading Profitability

JPMorgan's capital-markets revenue strength bodes well entering 2025, with core net interest income (NII) supported by higher rate expectations in recent months. NII for 4Q and 2025 could be more resilient vs. consensus' decline, with capital markets revenue relatively robust and momentum into 1Q. Card should be strong seasonally and drive further loan growth this year. Bank net charge-offs may increase in 4Q, with expense growth reflecting volume and investments. Still, return on tangible equity should handily exceed the bank's target for 2024, and likely lead peers for the quarter and year.

Any tweaks to early December's implied guidance for $89 billion core NII and $95 billion of expenses will be in focus, with the economic and regulatory outlook, buybacks and banking pipelines conference-call topics.

Goldman Sachs' Execution Aided By Market Tailwinds

Goldman Sachs could benefit from a robust backdrop for improving fees and elevated trading, as well as efforts to hone its focus. We expect broad growth across major institutional verticals from 4Q23, led by gains in equities underwriting. Secondary volume related to improving IPOs should also support equities trading, along with prime. M&A growth may be more modest. Asset- and wealth-management fees could grow double digits, aided by markets. Profitability appears set to improve from a year ago that was marred by charges, with compensation expected to be 32% of revenue for 2024, less than the 34% of 2023 (33% adjusted).

Banking pipelines and client insights are a focus to assess the trajectory of the underwriting and advisory-fee recovery into 2025, with the economic and regulatory outlook also key conference-call topics.

Wells' NII, Cost Views Key to 2025, Improving ROTE

Wells Fargo's risk and control work remain its priority, and more may be needed for removal of the asset cap, even as investor optimism jumped after US elections. Improving structural returns toward a 15% goal is also a focus for stakeholders, and the bank's net interest income (NII) guidance for 2025 may be aided by higher interest-rate expectations in recent months, with cost control also critical to improving profitability. Deposits and NII could show more stability in 4Q, while loan demand is a key question -- with card likely to show a seasonal tailwind. Robust equities should aid fees from the wealth business, while markets and investments support investment banking and trading vs. 4Q23.

Net charge-offs may tick higher. Commercial real estate, pipelines and the economic and regulatory outlook are key topics.

Morgan Stanley to Get Equity Fuel, Flows Keep Focus

Morgan Stanley's strategic update and any changes to targets are key in results, with expected momentum in wealth flows a critical metric. The bank's equities-focused institutional business and larger wealth and asset-management revenue should be bolstered by stock prices and activity in 4Q, as the world's market capitalization reached a record high in December, aided by relative US and Japanese strength. Wealth net interest income may be about stable with 3Q, while the unit's pretax margin meets or beats its near-term mid-20s target, though remains below a 30% long-term goal, we expect. The bank may benefit from positive operating leverage as compensation and other costs rise less than the top line.

Banking pipelines are a likely call topic in assessing the potential upside to a further banking-fee recovery.

Bank of America Earnings Expected to Grow

Bank of America (BAC) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

Bank of America's fourth quarter revenue is expected to be $25.21 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $5.98 billion and an adjusted EPS of $0.77, according to Bloomberg's consistent expectations.

Citigroup Q4 Earnings Preview

Citigroup's fourth quarter revenue is expected to be $19.49 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $2.37 billion and an adjusted EPS of $1.22, according to Bloomberg's consistent expectations.

Furthermore, the company has a robust earnings surprise history. It has surpassed analysts’ bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters. Its adjusted EPS for the last reported quarter dipped marginally to $1.51 but exceeded analysts’ expectations by a notable 12.7%.