Federal Reserve officials’ preferred inflation measure moved sideways last month, even before the effects from higher tariffs weigh on U.S. pricing pressures.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index climbed 2.5% year over year in February, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists surveyed by FactSet expected annual price growth would be 2.5%, the same pace as January.

Headline inflation was 0.3% on a monthly basis in February. That was in line with economists’ expectations and January’s pace.

Core PCE inflation—which excludes the more-volatile food and energy costs and can be a better indicator of growth trends—was up 2.8% year over year in February.

Economists surveyed by FactSet expected a core measure of 2.7% for February. However, a number of leading economists—and even Chair Jerome Powell—had estimated the core print for February would be up 2.8% from a year ago during last week’s rate policy meeting.

Core inflation rose 0.4% month over month. That’s a bit higher than the consensus estimate from economists, which called for monthly core price growth to rise by 0.3% to February from January, the same monthly pace logged at the start of the year.

In addition to the latest inflation numbers, the bureau’s latest data show that consumer spending held up relatively well in February. Personal consumption expenditures increased $87.8 billion, or 0.4%, last month. That was a bit higher than the 0.3% gain economists expected to see and a marked acceleration from the outright decline of 0.3% in January.

Americans’ inflation-adjusted disposable income collectively increased by 0.5% in February. Compared to a year ago, real disposable incomes climbed by 1.8%, according to the bureau.

Federal Reserve officials are not expecting to see much progress on cooling inflation this year. During the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting earlier this month, policymakers’ median forecast did not have PCE inflation returning to 2% until 2027.

Chair Powell and others have indicated that while they do expect tariffs to result in some firmer inflation prints this year, other factors may also delay any significant progress on bringing price growth back to target.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins, a voting member of the FOMC this year, said during an event on Thursday that she believes it’s “inevitable” that tariffs will increase inflation in the near term. She expects the rise to be short-lived and will likely push out the trajectory for inflation cooling back to 2% more than she initially anticipated, but she’s not ruling out the possibility of more-persistent effects, either.

To be sure, the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Thursday, comparing his attempts at trying to forecast economic outcomes with driving in foggy conditions. “With all this change, a dense fog has fallen. It’s not an everyday ‘forecasting is hard’ type of fog. It’s a ‘zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards’ type of fog,” Barkin said.

In the near term, Barkin said the foggy conditions mean that policymakers are better off employing a cautious approach on shifting interest rates.

“How does one drive in fog? Carefully and slowly, and if there’s a safe place to pull over, you do so to avoid getting in trouble,” Barkin said.