In a recent bank report, JP Morgan expects "the factor rotation underway with moves in US$ (down 4.2% YTD) as well as wider growth differential between US and the rest of the world" to continue.
"In the next 6-12 months, we expect Singapore banks to trade in a range, and be a funding source on a rally. Indonesian banks may have risk of weakness, if liquidity remains tight. Thai banks are likely going to outperform, with lower NPL formation and higher payout driving them," JPM says.
Specifically for Singapore, JP Morgan points out that three-month Sora has fallen by 100 basis points (bps) in the last six months. “The Monetary Authority of Singapore targets nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), hence the domestic rates reflect weighted average cuts across trading partners. Singapore dollar depreciation can accelerate this trend,” JP Morgan says.
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