CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s CF shares have gained 10.8% over the past three months. The company has outperformed its industry’s decline of 4.3% over the same time frame. CF has also topped the S&P 500’s roughly 2.9% rise over the same period.

Let’s take a look into the factors that are driving this leading nitrogen fertilizer maker.

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Healthy Nitrogen Demand, Lower Gas Costs Aid CF Stock

CF Industries is benefiting from the rising global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, which is driven by significant agricultural demand. Industrial demand for nitrogen has also recovered from the pandemic-related disruptions. Global demand is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. 

High levels of corn planted acres and low nitrogen channel inventories are expected to drive demand for nitrogen in North America. Demand for urea is also likely to remain strong in Brazil and India. Demand in India is expected to be driven by an uptick in domestic production on the back of higher operating rates and favorable weather conditions.

CF, on its second-quarter call, said that it anticipates the global supply-demand balance to remain positive over the near term, driven by nitrogen import requirements for Brazil and India until the end of the year, as well as sustained wide energy spreads between North America and high-cost production in Europe.

CF also stands to benefit from lower natural gas prices. It saw a decline in natural gas costs in the second quarter of 2024. The average cost of natural gas fell to $1.90 per MMBtu in the quarter from $2.75 per MMBtu in the year-ago quarter. Lower natural gas costs led to a decline in the company's cost of sales. The benefits of reduced gas costs are expected to continue in the third quarter.

CF Industries Remains Focused on Capital Allocation

CF remains committed to boosting shareholders’ value by leveraging strong cash flows. The company repurchased 8.3 million shares for $652 million in the first half of 2024, including 4 million shares for $305 million in the second quarter.

The current $3 billion share repurchase program had around $1.9 billion remaining at the end of the second quarter. CF returned $832 million through dividends and share repurchases during first-half 2024. Earlier this year, the company also announced a 25% increase in quarterly dividend to 50 cents per share.

CF offers a dividend yield of 2.5% (above the S&P 500′s average dividend yield of roughly 2%) at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 35% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable) with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 11.6%. Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Stock Price and Consensus

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-chart | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Quote

CF’s Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks

CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are IAMGOLD Corporation IAG, Eldorado Gold Corporation EGO and Hawkins, Inc. HWKN. While IAMGOLD and Eldorado Gold sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Hawkins carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IAMGOLD’s current-year earnings has increased by 46.4% in the past 60 days. IAG beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters with the average surprise being 200%. Its shares have shot up roughly 119% in the past year.

The consensus estimate for Eldorado Gold’s current year earnings is pegged at $1.35 per share, indicating a year-over-year rise of 136.8%. EGO beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 430.3%. The company's shares have rallied roughly 74% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hawkins’ current fiscal-year earnings is pegged at $4.14, indicating a rise of 15.3% from year-ago levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HWKN’s current fiscal-year earnings has increased 12.8% in the past 60 days. The stock has rallied around 100% in the past year.

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