It hasn't been the best quarter for Ramaco Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ:METC) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 17% in that time. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 226% in that time. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.
Since the stock has added US$82m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Ramaco Resources
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Ramaco Resources achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 8.8% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 27% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Ramaco Resources, it has a TSR of 348% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
Ramaco Resources shareholders are up 20% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 35% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ramaco Resources better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Ramaco Resources you should be aware of.
Ramaco Resources is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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