IWS Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6663) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last month. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 4.5% over the last year.
After such a large jump in price, IWS Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
For example, consider that IWS Group Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
View our latest analysis for IWS Group Holdings
In order to justify its P/E ratio, IWS Group Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 23%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 79% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that IWS Group Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
Shares in IWS Group Holdings have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that IWS Group Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It is also worth noting that we have found 5 warning signs for IWS Group Holdings (3 are a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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