On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was out of form and dropped into the red. The benchmark index fell 0.4% to 8,284.7 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The local market looks set to rebound on Thursday following a positive night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 62 points or 0.75% higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.75%, the S&P 500 is up 0.45%, and the Nasdaq is 0.3% higher.

BHP Q1 update

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares will be on watch today when the mining giant releases its first quarter update. The market is expecting the Big Australian to report production declines across the board for the first quarter of FY 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of FY 2024. Copper production is expected to come in at 463kt for the three months, whereas iron ore shipments are forecast to fall to 69.1Mt.

Oil prices soften

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) are likely to have a subdued session after oil prices softened further overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.3% to US$70.35 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.1% to US$74.20 a barrel. Traders have been selling oil in recent sessions after Iranian supplies were not disrupted as expected. Santos will be releasing its quarterly update today.

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a decent session after the gold price pushed higher again overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.4% to US$2,689.9 an ounce. Traders were bidding the gold price higher after US bond yields pulled back.

Buy Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are in the buy zone according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. In response to the miner's quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $136.20. It said: "RIO reported a slightly softer than expected Sep Q production with iron ore, aluminium and copper production 2-3% below GSe, but bauxite & alumina production above GSe." Nevertheless, the broker believes that its valuation is attractive and holds firm with its buy rating.