Investors in First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIN) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.3% to close at US$38.40 following the release of its third-quarter results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$135m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$0.39 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for First Financial Bankshares

Following the latest results, First Financial Bankshares' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$598.0m in 2025. This would be a decent 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 13% to US$1.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$592.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.62 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$37.90. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic First Financial Bankshares analyst has a price target of US$40.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$34.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that First Financial Bankshares is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that First Financial Bankshares' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect First Financial Bankshares to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$37.90, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for First Financial Bankshares going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.