A strong couple of years for gold prices is helping lift other precious metals — but a key driver for the commodity may owe to the ETFs tracking gold prices.
↑ X"Everybody always wants to talk about gold — why aren't we in gold?" John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, said on Investor's Business Daily's "Investing with IBD" podcast. Kosar held out until August to open a position in the precious metal. "As a person who manages money, a company who manages money, who's been doing the research business for 20 years, I never cease to be amazed on the never-ending interest in gold."
The comparative stability of gold prices make the metal a relative safe haven for investors. Uncertainty in the markets often translates to higher gold prices. A stronger dollar, on the other hand, often puts pressure on gold, as well as most other commodities priced in dollars. However, gold is an asset often characterized by slow growth relative to the rest of the market. The precious metal has recently seen returns rise on the back of geopolitical risk and Fed interest rate movements.
Kosar acknowledges that gold isn't always a strong performer. In August, he opened a position in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) after gold prices cleared a key resistance level. He cites the expansion in net assets for the ETF over the last few months as a signal of increased conviction. Investors, in other words, are holding gold for longer instead of considering it a shorter-term trade.
"In my world, if you're not outperforming the S&P 500, why be in it, right?" He cites the resistance gold saw during the summertime months. "One thing I never do is buy against the resistance level," said Kosar. "If you want to look bad in front of your clients, jump the gun and buy a resistance level — it's an instant loser."
He often waits for the confirmation of strength. That might mean a higher entry but a greater likelihood of success.
Kosar says investors should also look further afield — both up and down the production process — to capture sentiment around gold prices. He took a long position in silver miners, such as the iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP), after a recent breakout. "I wanted to wait until we had a nice lead here until we put on something else in the precious-metals space," he said.
SLVP recently saw a 35-day cup pattern form in the chart beginning in May, followed by a 48-day consolidation period that began in July.
ETFs can also provide some exposure to gold prices and other commodities. "You're seeing breakouts," he said. "I'm seeing a lot of good technical things in the entire precious-metal space, including ETFs that cover the space a little bit more broadly."
Although from IBD's perspective gold is extended from a traditional buy range, Kosar remains optimistic on the precious metal. He says those who are currently invested can keep their positions as long as bullish trends in gold prices still hold. "So long as it keeps outperforming, and as long as these assets keep flowing into GLD, I'll stay with this thing until the Rapture."
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