While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Aeris Resources Limited (ASX:AIS) share price up 15% in a single quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 82%. So it's about time shareholders saw some gains. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Aeris Resources
Because Aeris Resources made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last three years, Aeris Resources saw its revenue grow by 14% per year, compound. That's a pretty good rate of top-line growth. So it's hard to believe the share price decline of 22% per year is due to the revenue. It could be that the losses were much larger than expected. This is exactly why investors need to diversify - even when a loss making company grows revenue, it can fail to deliver for shareholders.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
It's nice to see that Aeris Resources shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 63% over the last year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 1.5% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Aeris Resources you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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