• Organic Revenue Growth: 17.4% in the third quarter.
• Operating Cash Flow: EUR 240.2 million, up 18% year-over-year.
• Total Revenue Growth: 19.8% overall growth.
• Poland Revenue Growth: 25% increase, now representing 50% of total revenue.
• Adjusted EBITAaL: EUR 48.5 million, up from EUR 41.9 million, with a 16% growth.
• Healthcare Services Organic Growth: 18.3%, with 9% from price and 9% from volume.
• Diagnostic Services Organic Growth: 15.3%, with 4% from price and 11% from volume.
• Impairment Charge: EUR 16.4 million on Nordic fertility and German dental businesses.
• Free Recurring Cash Flow: EUR 34.8 million, up 35% for the quarter.
• Leverage Ratio: Reduced to 3.1 from 3.3.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with FRA:5M0B.

Release Date: October 30, 2024

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Medicover AB (FRA:5M0B) reported a strong third quarter with organic revenue growth of 17.4%, driven by both divisions.
• Operating cash flow reached EUR 240.2 million, marking an 18% increase compared to the same period last year and the strongest quarter ever on a rolling 12-month basis.
• Healthcare services division showed impressive organic growth of 18.3%, with a balanced contribution from price and volume increases.
• Diagnostic services experienced solid growth with a 15.5% increase, driven by a strong test mix and volume growth.
• The company is on track to meet its financial targets for 2025, with a current revenue run rate of EUR 2.1 billion, indicating strong future performance.

Negative Points

• Medicover AB recorded an impairment charge of EUR 16.4 million related to its Nordic fertility businesses and German dental activities, impacting net profit.
• The company faces challenges in Germany due to stable pricing amidst cost inflation, although efforts are being made to mitigate these impacts.
• New hospital units in India contributed a negative EUR 5 million to EBITDAaL, affecting overall group margins.
• The competitive landscape in India remains challenging, with significant local competition for resources and capacity.
• Despite strong growth, the employment market in Poland presents a mixed picture, with high minimum wage growth impacting employers' hiring decisions.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Could you remind us of the share of the total installed bed capacity of the six units you mentioned, and when do you expect these units to reach lease-adjusted EBITDA breakeven? A: We don't specify exact quarters for when startup units will become positive, but two of the six units turned positive within two years, which is promising. Typically, we expect this within three years in India. The six units combined have a capacity of around 1,000 beds, representing about 20% of our total installed capacity in India.

Q: How do you expect the strong budget uplift and EU funds to impact Medicover in Poland for 2025-2026? A: We have weathered past economic challenges well, and with EU funds coming in, the Polish economy is expected to improve over the next 12-24 months. While the employment market is mixed, we anticipate a solid economic outlook, which should benefit our operations.

Q: Can you quantify the impact of the German diagnostic reimbursement changes expected in 2025? A: While the reform could negatively impact us if no action is taken, we are confident in mitigating its effects through cost structure adjustments and revenue strategies. We have managed to grow our margins in Germany despite stable pricing and cost inflation, and we expect to continue this trend.

Q: How are the new hospital units in India performing, and when will the impact of past divestitures and revamps no longer affect year-over-year growth? A: We are pleased with the ramp-up of new units, with some exceeding expectations. The divested units were small and do not significantly disrupt growth. We expect continued strong growth in India as occupancy increases and new units mature.

Q: What is your pricing strategy for 2025, given the significant price increases in 2024? A: We anticipate a significant price component in growth for 2025, though it will be lower than in 2024 due to decreasing inflation. However, price growth will remain higher than historical levels.

Q: Can you provide insights into the competitive situation in India and any upcoming hospital openings? A: Competition in India is local, and while competitors are active, we focus on new locations. We plan to open two new hospitals in Hyderabad in 2025, with one potentially delayed beyond the second quarter.

Q: How do you see the German market evolving, and can you comment on margin development there? A: We expect the situation in Germany next year to be no worse than the past two years. We are confident in improving margins through cost savings and strategic adjustments, despite industry-wide challenges.

Q: Regarding the EUR5 million negative impact from new hospitals, is this impact consistent further down the P&L? A: Yes, the full depreciation is charged on these hospitals, and the impact is significant throughout the P&L.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.