One of the biggest stories of last week was how Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (HKG:2600) shares plunged 20% in the week since its latest third-quarter results, closing yesterday at HK$4.95. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of CN¥111b being 2.8% less than what the analysts had been modelling. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aluminum Corporation of China

Following the latest results, Aluminum Corporation of China's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥241.9b in 2025. This would be a solid 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 17% to CN¥0.70. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥241.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.71 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$6.57, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aluminum Corporation of China analyst has a price target of HK$8.91 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$4.37. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Aluminum Corporation of China's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aluminum Corporation of China to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$6.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aluminum Corporation of China going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aluminum Corporation of China has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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