It's shaping up to be a tough period for The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Middleby missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$943m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.11, falling short by 5.4% and 8.2% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Middleby

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Middleby's eight analysts is for revenues of US$4.02b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 30% to US$9.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.77 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$160 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Middleby at US$181 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$134. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Middleby's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 178 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Middleby's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Middleby. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at US$160, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Middleby analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Middleby that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.