Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSE:FNV) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.7% to CA$175 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Franco-Nevada reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$276m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.79, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Franco-Nevada

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Franco-Nevada's seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.30b in 2025. This reflects a notable 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Franco-Nevada forecast to report a statutory profit of US$3.57 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.43 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$207, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Franco-Nevada analyst has a price target of CA$267 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$177. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Franco-Nevada's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Franco-Nevada's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.5% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Franco-Nevada is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Franco-Nevada's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Franco-Nevada. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Franco-Nevada going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.