A week ago, Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIND) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$206m, some 6.3% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.36, 96% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings from four analysts is for revenues of US$684.4m in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 85% to US$0.11. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$683.7m and losses of US$0.097 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Lindblad Expeditions Holdings even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a notable increase in per-share losses.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 13% to 13.25, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$18.00 and the most bearish at US$10.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Lindblad Expeditions Holdings shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Lindblad Expeditions Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Lindblad Expeditions Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.