As you might know, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (NYSE:MEC) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Unfortunately, Mayville Engineering Company delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$135m were 14% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.14 missed estimates by 29%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mayville Engineering Company after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Mayville Engineering Company

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Mayville Engineering Company are now predicting revenues of US$621.7m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 118% to US$1.29. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$662.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.19 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

The consensus price target fell 20% to US$19.67, with the analysts signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Mayville Engineering Company analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Mayville Engineering Company's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Mayville Engineering Company.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Mayville Engineering Company's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Mayville Engineering Company's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mayville Engineering Company. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mayville Engineering Company going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Mayville Engineering Company has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.