As you might know, AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$2.6b missed by 10%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.40 fell short of forecasts by 58%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AGCO after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for AGCO

After the latest results, the consensus from AGCO's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$11.1b in 2025, which would reflect an uneasy 12% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 195% to US$6.72. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.59 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.5% to US$105. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AGCO at US$120 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$87.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - AGCO is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AGCO. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AGCO's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AGCO going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with AGCO (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.