Shareholders of Ingredion Incorporated (NYSE:INGR) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$150 following its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$1.9b, statutory earnings beat expectations 9.2%, with Ingredion reporting profits of US$2.83 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ingredion

Taking into account the latest results, Ingredion's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$7.54b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 5.4% to US$11.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.55 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

The average price target rose 12% to US$157, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is the key driver of value for shareholders - enough to offset the reduction in revenue estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Ingredion, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$178 and the most bearish at US$125 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ingredion is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ingredion following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ingredion going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Ingredion that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.