INDIA BONDS-Flatness in India bond yields persists ahead of US election outcome

Reuters
2024-11-05
INDIA BONDS-Flatness in India bond yields persists ahead of US election outcome

By Dharamraj Dhutia

MUMBAI, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields ended barely changed on Tuesday after moving in a very tight range through the session, as investor focus remained glued to the U.S. presidential election and its impact on Treasury yields.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield IN067934G=CC ended at 6.7931%, compared with the previous close of 6.7970%. The 10-year U.S. yield eased on Monday and was around the 4.30% mark in Asian hours.

The U.S. election will be held later in the day, with investors putting on trades betting that Republican candidate Donald Trump could be president again, although he is still neck and neck with Vice President Kamala Harris in several polls.

However, his odds have receded since a highly followed poll on Saturday showed that Trump was trailing and Harris was holding a surprise lead in Iowa, a state that Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020.

"The outcome will significantly impact market risk sentiment," said Manish Bhargava, CEO at Straits Investment Management.

"Political uncertainty could lead to increased market volatility and risk aversion, prompting investors to shift towards safer or lower-risk assets. A clear and stable result might help stabilise global capital flows, benefiting emerging markets like India."

Trump's policies on enacting higher tariffs on imports are likely to stoke inflation and put upward pressure on U.S. yields, along with slowing down of the pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, said traders.

The Fed's policy decision is due on Thursday, to which traders will look to for cues on the pace of interest rate cuts.

The U.S. central bank's path after a near-certain 25 basis points rate cut at this week's meeting is up for debate. In September, the Fed had kick-started its easing cycle with a larger-than-usual 50 bps cut.

(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Janane Venkatraman )

((Dharamraj.dhutia@tr.com))

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