We believe investing is smart because history shows that stock markets go higher in the long term. But if you choose that path, you're going to buy some stocks that fall short of the market. Over the last year the Air Lease Corporation (NYSE:AL) share price is up 24%, but that's less than the broader market return. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 9.2% in three years.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Air Lease
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last year Air Lease grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 9.3%. This EPS growth is significantly lower than the 24% increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Dive deeper into Air Lease's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Air Lease's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Air Lease, it has a TSR of 26% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Air Lease shareholders gained a total return of 26% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 1.8% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Air Lease (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
Of course Air Lease may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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