It's been a pretty great week for Vital Energy, Inc. (NYSE:VTLE) shareholders, with its shares surging 20% to US$31.17 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were US$459m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$5.73, an impressive 285% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vital Energy

Following the latest results, Vital Energy's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.10b in 2025. This would be a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 34% to US$8.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.14 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$39.83, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vital Energy at US$65.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$29.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vital Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Vital Energy's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Vital Energy's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vital Energy following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Vital Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Vital Energy is showing 6 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are significant...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.