Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 23% over the past week following First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FWRG) latest quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$252m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 36% to hit US$0.03 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for First Watch Restaurant Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from First Watch Restaurant Group's ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.17b in 2025. This reflects a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 15% to US$0.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.40 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target rose 7.2% to US$22.20despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of First Watch Restaurant Group's earnings by assigning a price premium. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values First Watch Restaurant Group at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that First Watch Restaurant Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while First Watch Restaurant Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for First Watch Restaurant Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of First Watch Restaurant Group's balance sheet, and whether we think First Watch Restaurant Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.