It's shaping up to be a tough period for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FRGE), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like a pretty negative result overall with revenues of US$19m coming in 15% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.10 per share, 14% larger than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Forge Global Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Forge Global Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Forge Global Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of US$109.6m in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 47% to US$0.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$124.7m and losses of US$0.20 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The consensus price target fell 5.2% to US$3.68, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Forge Global Holdings at US$7.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Forge Global Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 29% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Forge Global Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Forge Global Holdings. They also downgraded Forge Global Holdings' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Forge Global Holdings' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Forge Global Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Forge Global Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Forge Global Holdings you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.