INDIA BONDS-Indian bond yields seen slightly rising after US peers jump

Reuters
2024-11-13
INDIA BONDS-Indian bond yields seen slightly rising after US peers jump

By Dharamraj Dhutia

MUMBAI, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields are expected to trend marginally higher in opening deals on Wednesday, as U.S. Treasury yields jumped again overnight, while local sentiment was bearish after a spike in inflation that could delay the rate easing cycle.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield IN067934G=CC is likely to move between 6.78% and 6.82%, compared with the previous close of 6.7958% on Tuesday, according to a trader with a state-run bank. Indian markets are shut on Friday for a local holiday.

"There could be some more selling today as all factors are turning out to be favouring the bears," the trader said.

"But major rise in yields unlikely and U.S. inflation data to dictate the move on Thursday."

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, and were elevated in Asian hours on Wednesday, as investors are pricing in President-elect Donald Trump's policies of lower taxes and trade tariffs that are viewed as inflationary, and could also lead to a slower pace of rate cut rates by the Federal Reserve.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was around 4.42%, with interest rate futures providing just 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, down from nearly 77% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch tool.

India's consumer price inflation accelerated to 6.21% year-on-year in October, breaching the Reserve Bank of India's target range for the first time in 14 months, due to a jump in vegetable prices, dashing hopes of an interest rate cut next month.

The print was sharply higher than the estimate of 5.81% in a Reuters poll, and 5.49% reading in September. The RBI is mandated to keep inflation in a range of 2%-6%, with a medium term target of 4%.

Firm inflation, hawkish speech from the central bank and heightened global volatility confirm that rate cuts are off the table for December, DBS Bank said.

The U.S. retail inflation data is due after Indian market hours on Wednesday, with economists expecting the core consumer price index to rise 0.3% month-on-month, matching September's pace.

KEY INDICATORS:

** Brent crude futures LCOc1 up 0.1% at $72 per barrel, after rising 0.1% in the previous session

** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield US10YT=RR was at 4.4236%; two-year US2YT=RR was at 4.3422%

** RBI to auction treasury bills worth 190 billion rupees ($2.25 billion)

($1 = 84.3790 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

((Dharamraj.dhutia@tr.com))

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