Nov 15 (Reuters) - A recently released investment research note from the UBS chief investment office is forecasting USD/JPY at 155.00, 152.00, 150.00 and 147.00 for December 2024, March 2025, June 2025 and September 2025 respectively. This is up from 147.00, 143.00, 140.00 and 138.00 previously. They also introduce a 145.00 target for December 2025.
The note suggests that, near term, a USD/JPY rise to 158.00-160.00 is possible, if 10-year yields rise by 30-40bps toward 4.8%. In both cases, such a move would be toppish in their view and should be reversed over the medium term.
From a political perspective, UBS CIO note that President-elect Donald Trump has previously criticised the JPY for being too weak, and Japanese policy makers also do not desire JPY weakness beyond 160.00. Mutual U.S.-Japanese interests could well be served by a stronger JPY.
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(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((Richard.Pace@thomsonreuters.com))
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