Despite an already strong run, Count Limited (ASX:CUP) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 27% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Count's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Professional Services industry in Australia, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
See our latest analysis for Count
Count certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If the company manages to stay the course, then investors should be rewarded with a share price that matches its revenue figures.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Count.Count's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 22% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 39% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the lone analyst covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 36% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 7.4% growth forecast for the broader industry.
With this information, we find it interesting that Count is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Count's P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Count currently trades on a lower than expected P/S since its forecasted revenue growth is higher than the wider industry. There could be some risks that the market is pricing in, which is preventing the P/S ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating revenue instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.
Having said that, be aware Count is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are significant.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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