JD.com Reports Earnings Thursday. Watch for China Stimulus Clues and the Tariffs Threat

Dow Jones
2024-11-14

China e-commerce giant JD.com will be in the limelight Thursday as it reports quarterly results.

Investors are likely hoping the report may shed light on China’s consumer demand, and whether the government’s big push to lift its sluggish economy is working. 

Shares got a boost in late September and early October amid hopes that economic stimulus would help kickstart the Chinese economy. However, the JD.com and other Chinese stocks slipped last week, when authorities’ plans to restructure some of the debt weighing on local governments fell short of expectations.

The threat of higher tariffs on Chinese imports under the incoming Trump administration has also hurt Chinese stocks. During the campaign, President-elect Donald Trump promised a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% levy on those coming from China. Investors will likely be listening closely for any clues from management on how potential tariffs could hit future earnings.

JD.com shares are still up almost 50% since mid-September, but have lost 11% over the past month.

Earnings will be the next test for the stock. Wall Street is looking for third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.05 per American depositary share, or ADS, on sales of $36 billion for China’s third biggest retailer, according to FactSet data.

Consumers have hunkered down amid job losses and continued pain in China’s property market, which holds the bulk of their wealth. Yet, stimulus measures have yet to be directly aimed at consumers. Instead they have ranged from interest-rate cuts to a reduction in the amount banks must hold relative to their assets—a step that will allow them to borrow more.

Because early measures to boost China’s economy were announced at the very end of the third quarter, any resulting increase in consumer spending is unlikely to show up in JD.com’s results for the period. Management, however, could still offer signals about consumption trends in China.

Weak macroeconomic trends remain a threat to JD.com, China’s third-largest online retailer. But last quarter, it managed to post solid results despite operating in an environment where consumers preferred to save. 

Analysts are mostly bullish on the stock, with 89% of those covering JD.com having a Buy or Buy-equivalent rating. That may be due to its cheap valuation—the stock currently trades at 8.9 times forward earnings. Shares of JD.com’s American depositary receipts, or ADRs, currently trade around $36.

Mizuho analyst James Lee expects JD to report revenue growth in the quarter of 5% compared with the same period last year, despite subdued consumer sentiment on discretionary spending, tough comparisons on home appliances, and increased competition. 

Lee also sees the company scaling up subsidies and investments in the fourth quarter to drive top-line growth, and in turn expects lower margins. The analyst has an Outperform rating on the stock and a price target of $43.

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