Shareholders of American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:APEI) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to US$19.85 following its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$153m were what the analysts expected, American Public Education surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.04 per share, an impressive 300% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for American Public Education

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for American Public Education from four analysts is for revenues of US$647.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 153% to US$1.43. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$641.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.33 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on American Public Education's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target rose 25% to US$23.00, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values American Public Education at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that American Public Education is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that American Public Education's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than American Public Education.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around American Public Education's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on American Public Education. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Public Education going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with American Public Education .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.