Sectors are all up YTD, but Financials and Energy were the only up last week

seekingalpha
2024-11-19

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Oppenheimer analysts remain bullish on equities and offer a window into how they performed last week.

“Pull-backs experienced, thus far this year, have mostly looked like ‘trims’ and ‘haircuts’ for the S&P 500 (SP500) whenever bears, skeptics, and nervous investors have found a catalyst to take near-term profits without FOMO midst what appears to us like a very much intact bull market,” said John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, in a note.

Financials (XLF) and energy (XLE) were the only two S&P 500 GICS sectors up from Nov. 8-15.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 2.1% last week, “as investors reassessed the earnings outlook despite solid Q3 results, and considered the outlook for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve both in December and in 2025,” according to Stoltzfus.

From Nov. 8-15, health care (XLC) was the worst performing sector, down 5.5%, followed by materials (XLB), down 3.3%, and information technology (XLK), down 3.2%.

Year-over-year, eight of the 11 sectors have positive earnings growth, with four up double-digit rates, three sectors showing declining earnings, with one – energy (XLE) – down double-digit rates.

Year-to-date, however, the S&P 500 (SPX), (SP500) is up 23.5%, as of Nov. 18.

“The rally has been led by three cyclical sectors – technology (XLK), communications (XLC) and financials (XLF) – and one defensive sector – utilities (XLU),” said Stoltzfus.

“The resilience of the U.S. economy, evident in the relative strength of business, the consumer and job growth, along with technological innovation have contributed in concert to the direction the equity market has taken so far this year,” he said.

Domestic and international indices were down Nov. 8-15. The MSCI emerging market (EEM) was down the most at -4.5%; followed by the Russell 2000 (IWM) at -4%; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) at -3.1%

“Investors switched to a ‘risk off’ stance, sending the small (SP600) and mid-caps (SP400) down by more than the large caps (SP500),” said Stoltzfus.

However, year-to-date, those same indices are up. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) is up 24.4%; the S&P 500 is up 23.1%; the S&P 400 (SP400) is up 15.3%; and the MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) is up 6%.

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