Jack in the Box JACK is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Dec. 20, after the closing bell. In the previous quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 10%.

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How are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.12 per share, indicating growth of 2.8% from $1.09 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $357.7 million. The metric suggests a 4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors at Play

Jack in the Box’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from menu innovation and new market expansion. This and enhancements in marketing and restaurant technology stack are likely to have aided restaurant-level economics in the to-be-reported quarter.

JACK is likely to have benefited from operational efficiencies and premium menu items. Products such as the Smashed Jack burger and Chicken and Waffle Sticks are likely to have supported higher average checks. Cost-saving measures like upgraded oil management systems and automation are expected to have driven margin improvement in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Emphasis on digital innovation bodes well. Enhanced loyalty programs, upgrades to its mobile app and expanded kiosk deployments are expected to have further enhanced the customer experience and aided the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter.

The company is prioritizing growth opportunities in the breakfast segment by reintroducing previously discontinued items. Its efforts to strengthen breakfast market share include incorporating breakfast into regular marketing campaigns and launching creative breakfast offerings to attract and retain customers. These initiatives are expected to have positively impacted the company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter.

However, reduced customer traffic and a shift in product mix (as consumers adjust to inflationary pressures) are likely to have negatively influenced the top line in the fiscal fourth quarter. A shift in consumer spending, particularly among value-conscious and lower-income guests, is likely to have affected comps in the fiscal fourth quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Jack in the Box this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Jack in the Box has an Earnings ESP of -0.02%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Recent Retail-Wholesale Releases

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG reported mixed third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the seventh consecutive quarter but revenues missing the same after beating in the preceding four quarters.

CMG reported adjusted EPS of 27 cents, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents. The bottom line increased 17.4% from 23 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. Quarterly revenues of $2,793.6 million missed the consensus mark of $2,817 million. However, the top line rose 13% on a year-over-year basis. This upside was driven by strong comparable restaurant sales growth, backed by higher transactions of 3.3% as well as a 2.7% rise in average checks.

Shake Shack Inc. SHAK posted third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, wherein earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both top and bottom lines also increased on a year-over-year basis. The company ramped up its investment in marketing strategies and programs aimed at increasing guest engagement and brand awareness, even amid a challenging market environment. These efforts have paid off, as the company has achieved some of the highest brand awareness levels on record, which, in turn, is fueling robust sales and profitability growth.

SHAK’s fiscal third-quarter adjusted EPS came in at 25 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted EPS of 17 cents. Quarterly revenues of $316.9 million beat the consensus mark of $315 million. The top line increased 14.7% on a year-over-year basis.

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. BJRI reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. Both top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.

The company reported an adjusted loss per share of 13 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents. In the year-ago quarter, it recorded an adjusted loss per share of 16 cents. Total revenues of $325.7 million beat the consensus mark by 0.04%. The top line inched up 2.2% year over year. This upside was backed by strong guest traffic and Pizookie Meal Deal performance.

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