It's been a good week for Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (HKG:780) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 5.4% to HK$18.04. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 2.7%to hit CN¥5.0b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Tongcheng Travel Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tongcheng Travel Holdings' 26 analysts is for revenues of CN¥20.1b in 2025. This reflects a major 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥19.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.05 in 2025. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

The average price target rose 9.8% to HK$22.55, with the analysts clearly having become more optimistic about Tongcheng Travel Holdings'prospects following these results. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Tongcheng Travel Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$27.48 and the most bearish at HK$17.71 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Tongcheng Travel Holdings'historical trends, as the 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 12% annually. So although Tongcheng Travel Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

We have estimates for Tongcheng Travel Holdings from its 26 analysts out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Tongcheng Travel Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

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