A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Winnebago Industries (WGO). Shares have added about 12% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Winnebago due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Winnebago Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates, Fall Y/Y 

Winnebago reported adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share for fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 (ended Aug. 31, 2024), missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 91 cents and plunging 82.3% year over year. The recreational vehicle (RV) maker reported revenues of $720.9 million for the quarter under review, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $726 million. The top line also declined 6.5% year over year.

Segmental Performance

Towable RV: Revenues in the Towable RV segment declined 7.2% year over year to $317 million amid lower average selling price per unit. The metric also missed our estimate of $346 million. Total deliveries from the segment came in at 8,183 units, which increased 6.1% year over year and beat our estimate of 7,819 units. Adjusted EBITDA declined 52% to $20.6 million owing to operational inefficiency and high warranty costs. The figure also came below our estimate of $33 million. The segment’s backlog was $137.1 million (4,850 units), down 34%.

Motorhome RV: Revenues in the Motorhome RV segment slid 3.1% year over year to $308 million due to a decline in unit volume. The top line also missed our estimate of $311 million. Total deliveries from the Motorhome RV segment came in at 1,545 units, falling 2.8% year over year and missing our estimate of 1,580 units. The segment recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $13 million, down 42% due to deleveraging, high warranty expenses and operational challenges. The metric also missed our estimate of $20 million. The backlog was $234.4 million (897 units), down 66% from the prior-year quarter.

Marine: Revenues from the segment totaled $80.5 million, down 16.6% year over year, primarily due to lower volume. The metric also lagged our estimate of $87 million. The total deliveries from the segment came in at 1,042 units, down 10.3% year over year, and fell short of our estimate of 1,067 units. The segment recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 million, down 45.7% year over year due to deleveraging. The metric missed our estimate of $6.8 million. The backlog for the Marine segment was $260 million (3,403 units), up 33.5%.

Financials & Outlook

Winnebago had cash and cash equivalents of $331 million as of Aug. 31, 2024. Long-term debt (excluding current maturities) increased to $637 million from $592.4 million recorded as of Aug. 26, 2023.

During the quarter under review, WGO bought back shares worth $10 million. The company paid a dividend of 34 cents per share on Sept. 25, 2024, to shareholders of record as of Sept. 11, 2024.

WGO expects its fiscal 2025 consolidated revenues in the band of $2.9-$3.2 billion. Adjusted EPS is estimated to be between $3.00 and $4.50.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -83.09% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Winnebago has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Winnebago has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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