It's been a mediocre week for Leslie's, Inc. (NASDAQ:LESL) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to US$2.48 in the week since its latest yearly results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.13 per share on revenues of US$1.3b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Leslie's

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Leslie's are now predicting revenues of US$1.36b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Leslie's is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.065 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at US$3.36, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Leslie's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$4.00 and the most bearish at US$2.25 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Leslie's' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Leslie's' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.9% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Leslie's is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Leslie's. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Leslie's' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Leslie's going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Leslie's (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.