BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX volatility risk and Trump trades

Reuters

2024-11-28

A U.S. holiday and month-end FX rebalancing flows have muddied the waters this week, but while near-term FX volatility risks might have peaked for now, price action in FX options highlights a need to hedge future potential USD strength and FX volatility.

The USD setback reached its limits after Wednesday's London fix as some traders reinstated long USD positions. EUR/USD dropped back to $1.0528 Thursday from a $1.0587 recovery-high on Wednesday and now consolidates.

Shorter-dated implied volatility is edging lower and 1-month contracts are being further eroded by their post-Christmas holiday expiry dates. One-week options will include the Dec. 6 U.S. NFP data to reinflate their risk premiums from Friday.

EUR/USD risk reversals have seen a significant retracement from last Friday's new multi-month highs for USD calls over puts, which suggests any renewed EUR/USD descent toward 1.0300 will be far less rapid now that some significant barrier options have been erased. However, the USD Trump trade remains popular

Demand and support for broader-based implied volatility shows that a majority of currency pairs are bracing for increased realised FX volatility when Donald Trump takes the U.S. reins in January.

For more click on

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 3-month expiry FXO implied volatility 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility 1-3-12-month expiry EUR/USD FXO risk reversals

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

((Richard.Pace@Thomsonreuters.com))

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EUR/USD dropped back to $1.0528 Thursday from a $1.0587 recovery-high on Wednesday and now consolidates. </p><p>   Shorter-dated implied volatility is edging lower and 1-month contracts are being further eroded by their post-Christmas holiday expiry dates. One-week options will include the Dec. 6 U.S. NFP data to reinflate their risk premiums from Friday. </p><p>   EUR/USD risk reversals have seen a significant retracement from last Friday's new multi-month highs for USD calls over puts, which suggests any renewed EUR/USD descent toward 1.0300 will be far less rapid now that some significant barrier options have been erased. However, the USD Trump trade remains popular </p><p>   Demand and support for broader-based implied volatility shows that a majority of currency pairs are bracing for increased realised FX volatility when Donald Trump takes the U.S. reins in January.      </p><p>   For more click on   </p><p>    &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 3-month expiry FXO implied volatility     1-month expiry FXO implied volatility     1-3-12-month expiry EUR/USD FXO risk reversals    </p><p>   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><p>(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey)</p><p>((Richard.Pace@Thomsonreuters.com))</p></body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"CYB","symbol_name":"人民幣ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","article_id":"2486795311","we_media_id":"1036604489","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2486795311","pubTimestamp":1732803192,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Reuters","introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"summary":"A U.S. holiday and month-end FX rebalancing flows have muddied the waters this week, but while near-term FX volatility risks might have peaked for now, price action in FX options highlights a need to ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空"},"translate_title":"BUZZ-FX期权总结-外汇波动风险和特朗普交易","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CYB":0.6,"EUO":0.6,"AUDmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"MAUDmain":0.6,"MEURmain":0.6,"MGBPmain":0.6,"UCmain":0.9,"FXA":0.6,"FXB":0.6,"FXC":0.6,"FXE":0.6,"FXY":0.6,"YCS":0.6},"content_text":"A U.S. holiday and month-end FX rebalancing flows have muddied the waters this week, but while near-term FX volatility risks might have peaked for now, price action in FX options highlights a need to hedge future potential USD strength and FX volatility.   The USD setback reached its limits after Wednesday's London fix as some traders reinstated long USD positions. EUR/USD dropped back to $1.0528 Thursday from a $1.0587 recovery-high on Wednesday and now consolidates.    Shorter-dated implied volatility is edging lower and 1-month contracts are being further eroded by their post-Christmas holiday expiry dates. One-week options will include the Dec. 6 U.S. NFP data to reinflate their risk premiums from Friday.    EUR/USD risk reversals have seen a significant retracement from last Friday's new multi-month highs for USD calls over puts, which suggests any renewed EUR/USD descent toward 1.0300 will be far less rapid now that some significant barrier options have been erased. However, the USD Trump trade remains popular    Demand and support for broader-based implied volatility shows that a majority of currency pairs are bracing for increased realised FX volatility when Donald Trump takes the U.S. reins in January.         For more click on       <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 3-month expiry FXO implied volatility     1-month expiry FXO implied volatility     1-3-12-month expiry EUR/USD FXO risk reversals       ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Kevin Liffey)((Richard.Pace@Thomsonreuters.com))","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}