A month has gone by since the last earnings report for MSCI (MSCI). Shares have added about 6.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MSCI due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

MSCI Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y

MSCI’s third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of $3.86 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.39% and increased 11.9% year over year.

Revenues increased 15.9% year over year to $724.7 million, beating the consensus mark by 1.54%. Organic revenues rose 11.1% year over year.

Recurring subscriptions of $536.6 million increased 15.4% year over year and contributed 74% to revenues. 

Asset-based fees of $168.6 million jumped 19.5% year over year and contributed 23.3% to revenues. 

Non-recurring revenues of $19.5 million increased 0.4% year over year and contributed 2.7% to revenues. 

At the end of the reported quarter, average assets under management (AUM) were $1.762 trillion in ETFs linked to MSCI indexes. 

The total retention rate was 94.2% in the quarter under review.

MSCI’s Top-Line Details

In the third quarter, Index revenues of $404.8 million increased 11.8% year-over-year. 

Recurring subscriptions and asset-based fees rose 8.5% and 19.5% on a year-over-year basis, respectively. However, non-recurring revenues declined 15.7% year over year.  Organically, Index operating revenue growth was 11.8%.

Growth in Index revenues also included $0.21 million from the acquisition of Foxberry. Organic operating revenue growth for the Index was 11.8%.

The uptick in recurring subscription revenues was driven by strong growth from market-cap-weighted Index products and ETFs linked to MSCI equity indexes.

Analytics operating revenues of $172.4 million increased 11.7% year over year. Organically, Analytics’ operating revenue growth was 11.7%.

Recurring subscriptions and non-recurring revenues jumped 11.2% and 40.9% on a year-over-year basis, respectively.

ESG and Climate segment’s operating revenues of $83.6 million and surged 14.5% year over year. Organically, ESG and Climate operating revenue growth was 11%. 

Recurring subscriptions and non-recurring revenues increased 13.6% and 62.8% on a year-over-year basis, respectively.

All Other – Private Assets operating revenues, which primarily comprise the Real Assets operating segment and the Private Capital Solutions (formerly known as Burgiss), were $63.8 million, up 77.2% year over year. Organic operating revenue growth for All Other – Private Assets was 1%.

MSCI’s Operating Details

Adjusted EBITDA increased 16.7% year over year to $450.7 million in the reported quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the third quarter of 2024 was 62.2% compared to 61.8% in the third quarter of 2023.

Total operating expenses increased 18.8% on a year-over-year basis to $323.4 million. 

Adjusted EBITDA expenses were $274 million, up 14.6%, reflecting higher compensation and incentive compensation expenses related to higher headcount.

Operating income improved 13.6% year over year to $401.3 million. The operating margin contracted 110 bps on a year-over-year basis to 55.4%.

MSCI’s Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Total cash and cash equivalents, as of Sept. 30, 2024, were $501 million compared with $451.4 million as of June 30, 2024.

Total debt was $4.5 billion as of Sept. 30, unchanged sequentially. The total debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio (based on trailing 12-month-adjusted EBITDA) was 2.7 times, lower than management’s target range of 3-3.5 times.

As of Sept. 30, 2024, free cash flow was $394 million, up 45.8% year over year, compared with $321.9 million as of June 30, 2024.

MSCI had $1.9 billion outstanding under its share-repurchase authorization as of Oct. 28, 2024. 

It paid out dividends worth $125.4 million in the third quarter.

MSCI’s 2024 Guidance

For 2024, MSCI expects total operating expenses in the range of $1.305-$1.345 billion. 

Adjusted EBITDA expenses are expected between $1.130 billion and $1.160 billion.

Interest expenses are expected between $183 million and $186 million.

Net cash provided by operating activities and free cash flow are expected in the $1.42-$1.47 billion band and the $1.305-$1.365 billion range, respectively.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, MSCI has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, MSCI has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

MSCI is part of the Zacks Business - Software Services industry. Over the past month, Tyler Technologies (TYL), a stock from the same industry, has gained 2.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2024 more than a month ago.

Tyler Technologies reported revenues of $543.34 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +9.8%. EPS of $2.52 for the same period compares with $2.14 a year ago.

Tyler Technologies is expected to post earnings of $2.42 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +28%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.7%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Tyler Technologies. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

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