CEE MARKETS-Zloty inches higher as Polish cbank keeps rates stable

Reuters
2024-12-04
CEE MARKETS-Zloty inches higher as Polish cbank keeps rates stable

Adds Poland interest rate decision, analyst comment, updates prices

WARSAW, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The zloty edged up on Wednesday as Poland's central bank kept rates on hold as expected, while other Central Eastern European currencies traded steady.

The Polish Monetary Policy Council $(MPC)$ extended its pause, as forecast by all analysts in a Reuters poll, with attention turning to National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski's Thursday press conference for clues on the rates path.

He has flagged earlier that discussions on resuming rate cuts could start after the NBP's next inflation projection in March.

At 1442 GMT the Polish zloty EURPLN= traded 0.18% higher to the euro at 4.2835, nearing its strongest level since early October.

"The MPC will cut interest rates later than other central banks. Consensus sees the first cuts only in Q2 2025, along with a decline in inflation. Economists predict that the CPI will slowly start to return to the inflation target," Polish Economic Institute analysts wrote on X.

In earlier comments, PKO BP analysts pointed to developments since the last rate-setting meeting, including Poland's decision to extend an energy price cap into 2025, as well as weak private consumption data and the zloty's recovery since the Nov. 5 U.S. elections.

"In our opinion, the arguments for a rate cut are growing," they wrote.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.06% lower against the euro at 25.1870, after hitting its strongest level since late September at 25.11 in early trading.

The Czech National Bank $(CNB.AU)$ is very likely to pause interest rate cuts soon, opting for stability and assessing new forecasts with the aim of lowering core inflation in the future to slightly below 2%, Governor Ales Michl said.

The central bank has cut rates at consecutive meetings since December 2023, taking its key rate to 4.00% from a more than two-decade high of 7.00%.

"Czech Governor Michl's comments were actually in line with his previous statements, as Governor Michl belongs to that part of the CNB Board which adopted a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts," Radomir Jac, chief economist at Generali Investments CEE, said.

Czech wage data for the third quarter released on Wednesday "support the case of a pause in the cycle of rate cuts at the CNB's upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 19", he said, adding he expected a resumption of easing in the first quarter of 2025 with a 25 basis point cut in each quarter of next year.

"Today's news - wage statistics and Governor Michl's comments - can be seen as factors, which contributed to further slight CZK gains this morning," Jac said.

In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= inched 0.1% higher against the euro, trading at 414.10, off of its weakest level since December 2022, having fallen last week after credit rating agency Moody's revised the country's outlook to "negative" from "stable".

CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1542 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1870

25.1715

-0.06%

-1.93%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

414.1000

414.5200

+0.10%

-7.47%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2835

4.2913

+0.18%

+1.42%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9773

4.9773

+0.00%

-0.06%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.8800

116.9600

+0.07%

+0.31%

Note: daily change

calculated from

1800 CET

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1705.42

1707.6100

-0.13%

+20.61%

Budapest

.BUX

79088.71

77690.26

+1.80%

+30.47%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2270.80

2240.58

+1.35%

-3.08%

Bucharest

.BETI

16264.10

16060.28

+1.27%

+5.81%

Spread

Daily

vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic

spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3090

0.0440

+135bps

+3bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5760

-0.0280

+165bps

-6bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.9390

0.0410

+186bps

+2bps

Poland

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.8850

-0.1180

+293bps

-13bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.2400

0.0600

+331bps

+3bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.6000

0.0280

+352bps

+0bps

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.82

3.63

3.42

3.89

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.99

6.68

6.43

6.50

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.66

5.11

4.68

5.86

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices

**************************************************************

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest, Jason Hovet in Prague. Editing by Mark Potter and Vijay Kishore)

((karl.badohal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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