By George Glover

Black Friday has been and gone -- and now it's time for investors to start figuring out which stocks benefited most from the annual shopping bonanza.

Deutsche Bank is already doing just that. In a research note published Monday, a team of analysts led by Krisztina Katai gave an update on how they thought the big retailers did on their busiest day of the year. They visited four states and used spending and footfall data from payments company Mastercard and location analytics company Placer.AI to figure out the winners and losers.

The top-line takeaways were good. Deutsche said that most shops had met their expectations, raising the likelihood retailers will "meet and/or beat fourth-quarter guidance" when they report earnings early next year.

Katai's team also highlighted a couple of standout sectors. Beauty stores did well, they said, highlighting "exceptionally high" traffic at Sephora, which is owned by French fashion house LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, and "a healthy number of shoppers" at soap and lotion seller Bath & Body Works.

Footwear and athletics shops also had a good Black Friday, according to Deutsche. They highlighted Dick's Sporting Goods and the privately held Alo Yoga and Vuori as stores that attracted shoppers. Dick's managed its inventory levels well and there were long queues in the sites analysts visited in Missouri and New York.

While traffic at department stores looked mixed, discount stores were some of the day's biggest winners, according to Deutsche. Walmart "was the clear leader" among the off-price group "thanks to significantly strong traffic across nearly all departments," Katai's team said.

It's been a strong year for retail stocks that are most-exposed to the U.S., with the world's largest economy still looking red-hot thanks to cooling inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts. Walmart shares have jumped 76% in 2024 through Monday, while Dick's is up 47%, compared with a 27% rise for the benchmark S&P 500. Investors will be hoping a strong Black Friday is a sign they can carry on racking up gains.

Write to George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com

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December 03, 2024 08:04 ET (13:04 GMT)

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