Scotiabank Provides An Update on Canada's Federal Finances

MT Newswires
2024-12-04

Canadians are still waiting for an official update on the state of federal finances and fiscal plans ahead, said Scotiabank.

It's not clear when -- or even if -- it will come before the Christmas holidays but the writing is mostly on the wall, noted the bank.

More spending is clearly in the offing, stated Scotiabank. NDP support paved the way for the partial passage of the Nov. 21 stimulus measures -- C$1.6 billion of C$6.3 billion -- ending a months-long parliamentary stand-off.

The balance and then some is expected before long to keep Canadians from the polls a bit longer, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

The Canadian government is likely in a bind with one too many constraints -- namely fiscal anchors it set just last year -- crimping its room to maneuver against pressures to spend to stay in power, pointed out Scotiabank.

The government isn't on track to meet its near-term fiscal guardrails owing to cost overruns despite economic growth above expectations. This suggests revenue-raising measures are likely needed -- and fast, added the bank.

Further complicating the picture, there are very likely legitimate and potentially costly measures -- from military investments to corporate tax cuts to trade relief reserves -- that Canadians should be deliberating on the eve of potentially tumultuous years ahead.

There may or may not be an official update anytime soon. Canadians saw in late November that doesn't preclude continued spending, noted Scotiabank. It certainly wouldn't please everyone.

The bank estimates that most economists may fall in that bucket with another eventual spend-a-little, tax-a-little fiscal plan. Scotiabank doesn't think they'd blow through their near-term guardrails just yet if only for political reasons, but outer-year ones may be at play under the pretext of weaker growth.

While inflation has been moderating and spare capacity opening, continued fiscal largesse across levels of government will keep central bank watchers vigilant. But incremental new spending is being digested in a crowded market landscape.

The global backdrop is fraught with uncertainty rendering wide bandwidths around Canada's economic and fiscal outlook. This cautions restraint: holding the line on incremental spending pressures, moving forward more aggressively on reducing the government's footprint, and readying the war chest for potentially tumultuous years ahead.

Alas, recent announcements signal fiscal activism is set to continue with elections just around the corner, but still fighting yesterday's battle, not the one ahead, according to Scotiabank.





















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