Nifty Bulls Eye 25,000 As Hopes Rise For RBI Easing Rate

Bloomberg
2024-12-06

(Bloomberg) -- Before the trading day starts we bring you a digest of the key news and events that are likely to move markets. Today we look at:

  • Broker stocks
  • Bullish traders
  • Tech surge

Good morning, this is Chiranjivi Chakraborty, an equities reporter in Mumbai. Nifty futures point to a muted start with key Asian markets also down. All eyes are on the RBI’s policy meeting today, as market participants expect the central bank to unveil measures to address the surprise slump in GDP growth. Meanwhile, the 25,000 level on the Nifty in is sight, driven by options traders’ bullish bets.

Broker stocks rally, point to fresh optimism

Signs are emerging that the market’s weakness may be coming to an end. One key indicator of this is the recent upswing in shares of companies that benefit from a robust rally such as brokers, stock exchanges, and depositories. On Thursday, shares of BSE, Angel One, and CDSL saw strong buying as traders bet that easy monetary conditions will revive sentiment following Nifty’s recent correction. If the RBI delivers on the expectations later today, these market-linked shares will likely remain at the forefront of any market surge.

Options traders eye 25,000 Nifty

While equity and bond markets are pricing in potential easing measures in Friday’s monetary policy, the options market isn’t far behind. Traders are betting on a rally, with Indiacharts saying the Nifty could rise to 25,000. The 25,000 call for the Nifty expiring Dec. 12 saw volumes rise 1.5 times, while the 26,000 call experienced a fivefold increase. The message from the derivatives market is clear: it’s time for easing.

Lack of chip names no barrier to India’s tech surge

The absence of semiconductor stocks in India has not been a hindrance for its technology sector. The Nifty IT index is set for its biggest year outperformance against its regional peer since 2021. The NSE Tech index has risen over 25% this year, outpacing both the Nifty 50 and the MSCI Asia Pacific indexes, driven by optimism that a Trump-led US economy will drive growth in tech spending. Despite concerns over valuation, investors have turned to defensive stocks anticipating a spike in global market volatility in 2025.

Analysts actions:

  • Emami Raised to Buy at Way2Wealth Brokers; PT 770 rupees
  • Greaves Cotton Cut to Hold at NMV Securities; PT 180 rupees
  • Swiggy Cut to Reduce at HDFC Securities; PT 470 rupees

Three great reads from Bloomberg today:

  • David Tepper’s buy China thesis has a crucial flaw: China Today
  • Ooft! Citi sells leftovers of $1.9b Goodman block trade at $70m loss
  • Big Take: Researchers hack the microbiome, turn fecal matter into medicine

And, finally.. 

Foreigners are returning to the country’s stocks and sovereign bonds eligible for global index inclusion, ahead of the crucial monetary policy committee meeting on Friday. For equities, the initial trends are encouraging after witnessing a record outflow in October. In the debt market, the net inflows in the first four days alone have more than erased last month’s withdrawals — the first monthly outflow since India’s addition to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s index.

To read India Markets Buzz every day, follow Bloomberg India on WhatsApp. Sign up here.

--With assistance from Savio Shetty, Ashutosh Joshi, Alex Gabriel Simon and Kartik Goyal.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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