China Producer Prices Still Soggy in November; Fitch Lowers GDP Outlook

MT Newswires Live
2024-12-09

Industrial prices in China remained soggy in November, again underlining concerns the region's economic giant is struggling to recover from the pandemic era.

China's producer price index (PPI) fell 2.5% in November on year, although the index did gain 0.1% from October, reported the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

China's PPI measures prices of industrial goods at the factory gate when sold to large buyers. The PPI is distinct from the nation's consumer price index (CPI) which measures prices in retail locations.

The PPI is sometimes considered a precursor to later movements in the CPI, as retailers try to recoup costs or pass on savings to consumers.

In the first 11 months of 2024, China's PPI on average was down 2.1% from 2023, added the NBS.

Industrial buyers, as well as sellers, also experienced softer prices in November, said the NBS,

Industrial buyers saw ferrous materials prices fall 7.1% on year in November, while fuel power prices fell 6.5%, and chemical raw materials prices fell 5%, reported the NBS.

The soft industrial price picture, as well as the nation's struggling property sector, represents a challenge to China's leadership, said Fitch Ratings on Monday.

Beijing has an annual growth target of 5% on the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), but faces hurdles domestically in soggy residential real estate markets, and internationally on the possibility of higher tariffs on goods shipped to the US, under the pending Trump Administration, reported Fitch Ratings.

The credit-rating agency Fitch lowered its forecast for GDP growth for China in 2025 to 4.3% from 4.5% and for 2026 to 4.0% from 4.3%, citing the geopolitical uncertainties, and the tariff and export outlooks.

Fitch would have lowered the forecast by an even larger amount but said, "The scale of these revisions is tempered by an assumption that fiscal policy will be eased more aggressively in China."

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