For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – December 12, 2024 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ, Russell 2000 Index ETF IWM, Microsoft MSFT, Kroger KR and Albertsons ACI.

Will Bulls Continue to Run? 5 Stock Market Predictions for 2025

Wall Street is notoriously unpredictable. However, predicting the next year can be a fun exercise. Below are my five predictions for 2025:

Prediction #1: Small Caps Will Outperform

Recently, large-cap technology companies have been the most dominant stocks on Wall Street from an earnings and performance perspective. For example, the mega-cap tech-laden Nasdaq 100 Index ETF has ballooned ~155% over the past five years, while the small cap Russell 2000 Index ETF is up only 47%. Below are two reasons I believe small caps will outperform large caps in 2025.

1. Trump Tariffs: President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to levy tariffs on several countries when he returns to Pennsylvania Avenue, including China, Mexico, France, and others. Tariffs will make foreign products more expensive for consumers and will lead to a shift in supply chains left by foreign suppliers.

2. Long-Term Technical Breakout: An old Wall Street adage suggests, “The longer the base, the higher in space.” IWM is currently emerging from a three-year base structure and may look to play catch-up.

Prediction #2: A 10% Pullback in the First Half of the Year

Eventually, even in the most robust bull markets, stocks encounter profit-taking and must at least digest gains before moving higher. Though stocks will likely benefit from year-end “window dressing” and a “Santa Claus” rally to close 2024, they are due for a pullback.

The S&P 500 Index is up six of the past seven months, and the one month it was down, it was only lower by less than a percent. Furthermore, regardless of the market environment, the average year sees at least one correction of 10% or more.

Prediction #3: M&A Will Increase Dramatically

Lina Khan, chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), has been one of the most prominent hawks regarding mergers and acquisitions. During her tenure she has tried to block several deals, including the Microsoft takeover of Activision Blizzard (her challenge was unsuccessful. Though the MSFT challenge was unsuccessful, Kahn successfully blocked a merger between grocery juggernaut Kroger and Albertsons.

After President-elect Trump recently named Andrew Ferguson his pick for the new FTC chair, expect the M&A environment to do a 180. The incoming administration will likely be far laxer regarding M&A between mid and small-cap companies. However, the real question will be, “How will the administration handle current antitrust cases against Amazonand Alphabet?” While Republicans mostly believe in free markets, many believe big tech’s power has gone too far.

Prediction #4: Bull Market Runs as S&P Gains More Than 10%

On Wall Street, momentum begets momentum. Though the S&P 500 Index has been up more than 20% for two years running, the average bull market lasts approximately four years. Meanwhile, historical seasonality trends suggest that stocks rally following the presidential election.

Prediction #5: The IPO Market Will Explode

After a decline in 2023, the IPO market staged a comeback in 2024. With a dovish Fed, bull market trend, and new political environment, I expect a plethora of IPOs – particularly in the quantum computing and AI realm. While each of these industries is red hot, there are only a few pure plays in each.

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The Kroger Co. (KR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): ETF Research Reports

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