Dec 12 (Reuters) - The dollar has resumed a rise that began in 2011 and may soon eclipse the current peak for that move at 133.49 which was achieved in 2022. Targets above the current peak at 139.47 and 144.30 equate to gains in the dollar's trade-weighted value of 5% to 9%.
Unlike 2022 when many traders were expecting the dollar to rise and investment in it became overcrowded, there is much less to restrain the current rise.
Aside from a very large bet against Canada's dollar there is little currently wagered on the dollar rising, with the net positions excluding USD/CAD less than $12 billion. This compares to a record bullish wager in excess of $51 billion in 2015, and a $36 billion wager held in April this year.
There could even be a short squeeze of traders who continue to gamble on the dollar dropping versus pound, yen, Australian dollar, and Mexican peso, which would exacerbate the size and extent of any dollar rise that would be likely to follow any move above 2022's high. That could significantly increase demand for the U.S. currency.
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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))
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