On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week in a disappointing fashion. The benchmark index dropped 0.4% to 8,296 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall again

The Australian share market looks set to fall again on Monday following a mixed finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 39 points or 0.5% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 0.2%, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%.

Oil prices charge higher

It looks likely to be a good start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices charged higher on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 1.8% to US$71.29 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 1.5% to US$74.49 a barrel. Oil prices rose to a three-week high amid potential sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil.

NAB pay day

Today is a good day for National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shareholders. That's because the big four bank will be paying eligible shareholders their latest dividend later today. In November, the banking giant released its full year results and reported a profit of $7.1 billion. This allowed the NAB board to declare a fully franked final dividend of 85 cents per share.

Gold price tumbles

ASX 200 gold shares such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a difficult start to the week after the gold price tumbled on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 1.6% to US$2,665.9 an ounce. While the gold price slipped on Friday it still rose over the week on increased US rate cut bets.

Sell Fortescue shares

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price could be overvalued according to the team at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has reaffirmed its sell rating on the mining giant's shares with a slightly improved price target of $17.17 (from $17.04). It said: "While we see potential for some near-term macro tailwinds, lower production, higher input costs and reduced price realisations remain company-specific challenges for FMG in FY25 after a slow start relative to guidance. Retain Sell."