By Evie Liu

Egg prices are frying shoppers because of the bird flu outbreak. Consumers should brace for more increases.

Prices for eggs rose 8.2% in November from the previous month, the biggest jump among all food categories, according to consumer price index data released this week. That more than offsets the previous month's 6.4% decline.

The average price of a dozen large grade-A eggs reached $3.65 in November, up 8.3% from October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although that's still below the recent high of $3.82 per dozen set in September, prices have gained 71% over the past year.

Things might not get better any time soon. According to producer price index data released Thursday, prices for chicken eggs jumped 56% month over month in November, after falling during the previous two months.

Gains in producer prices are usually considered predictors of higher consumer prices to come, as producers tend to pass on increased costs to consumers.

Further egg-flation could be coming at the worst time of the year. Consumer demand picks up during the holiday season, as many Americans will be whipping up Christmas cookies and other holiday fare.

The costs of eggs began rising over the summer, climbing 4.8% month-over-month in August and 8.4% in September. A new wave of bird flu infections in American chicken farms since March has severely reduced the number of laying hens in the country, shrinking the egg supply.

Egg producers' stocks have benefited as a result. Cal-Maine Foods shares have soared 88% this year, while Vital Farms stock has surged 146%.

Eggs were a poster child for inflation in 2022 along with gasoline. Although the breakfast protein makes up just a fraction of the consumer and producer price indexes, it has become one of the first places people look at when gauging where prices are going.

"It's a reminder that inflation isn't gone," said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.

The annual rate of inflation across the board was still 2.7% as of November, much above the Federal Reserve's target pace of 2%, according to CPI data released Wednesday.

The Fed is set to hold its next policy meeting next week on Dec. 17-18. Many economists and investors are expecting the central bank to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point.

Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com

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December 12, 2024 15:49 ET (20:49 GMT)

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