It has been a terrible month for HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC) shares.

Since the end of November, the ASX 200 share has lost 22% of its value.

While this is disappointing, one leading broker thinks that it has created a buying opportunity.

What is this ASX 200 share?

Firstly, what is HMC Capital? It is an Australian alternative asset manager with over $19 billion of funds under management (FUM).

It has established strategies spanning real estate, digital infrastructure, energy transition, private equity and private credit.

It also recently raised funds and listed the Digico Infrastructure REIT Stapled Unit (ASX: DGT). It is a diversified owner, operator, and developer of data centres globally.

Strong growth outlook

Bell Potter has been looking at the company and adjusting its estimates and valuation following a very busy period.

The good news is that the broker believes that the ASX 200 share is well-placed to deliver strong growth in FY 2025. It said:

Following listing of DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ($2.7bn market cap and $4.3bn EV prelist), trading update alongside its AGM, and acquisition of Neoen, we have undertaken a detailed review of our forecasts across all platforms of HMC. Indeed, at last HMC is 'tracking' (based on annualised run-rate of CP1 fund) to pre-tax EPS of 70.0c, 52% higher vs. late Oct update.

Digital Infrastructure (data centres) has done the heavy lifting in 1H25 with FUM increasing to $19.0b post DigiCo completion (was $12.7b at FY24), and Neoen acquisition, as the 'medium term' target for $20b FUM becomes the FY25 target (BPe $20.5b).

The even better news is that Bell Potter believes this strong form can continue over the remainder of the decade. So much so, it believes HMC Capital can grow its FUM to $50 billion by FY 2030. It explains:

HMC now has a diversified platform and funding sources which provides runway ahead across: (1) Private credit (2x target in FY25); (2) Digital Infrastructure & Energy Transition; (3) Real Estate across LML funds; and (4) New PE fund planned which combined we forecast to take FUM to >$20b FY25, and $50b target by FY30.

Time to buy?

According to the note, the broker has upgraded this ASX 200 share to a buy rating with an improved price target of $13.50 (from $9.05).

Based on its current share price of $9.62, this implies potential upside of 40% for investors over the next 12 months. It concludes:

Notwithstanding a turbulent week (-17%), it has been remarkable half year period for HMC and we upgrade to Buy (was Hold). We think the share price pull-back provides an attractive entry point as the platform is reaching a scale and breadth sweet spot juncture which could see fee-earning capability increase further yet, and screens inexpensively vs. key global alternative AM and real estate fund manager peers.