A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Central Garden (CENT). Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Central Garden due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

CENT Posts Narrower-Than-Expected Q4 Loss, Sales Down 11% Y/Y

Central Garden & Pet Company came up with fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with the top line missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but the bottom line exceeding the same. However, both metrics declined year over year. 

Nonetheless, CENT remains on track with its Cost and Simplicity program. It focuses on making targeted investments and adding new products across pet and garden portfolios. Although management realizes that the external environment is tough, it remains confident to deliver profitable growth in fiscal 2025 and beyond.

CENT’s Quarterly Performance: Key Insights

Central Garden & Pet reported an adjusted quarterly loss of 18 cents per share, which was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 20 cents. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago period’s earnings of 8 cents per share.

The company generated net sales of $669.5 million, which came below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $724 million. The metric also declined 11% from the year-ago period. Organic net sales decreased 13% excluding the impact of the TDBBS acquisition and the sale of the independent garden channel distribution business.

The adjusted gross profit was $174.2 million compared with $199.2 million reported in the year-ago period. The adjusted gross margin contracted 60 basis points to 26%, primarily due to grass seed inventory impairment in the Garden segment.

Adjusted SG&A expenses of $185.5 million decreased from $187.2 million in the prior year quarter. As a percentage of net sales, the figure increased 270 basis points to 27.7%. These variances indicate lower volumes and the timing of spending related to productivity and commercial initiatives.

The adjusted operating loss was $11.4 million, down from the operating income of $12 million reported in the year-ago period. Adjusted EBITDA was $16.8 million compared with $41.6 million in the prior-year period.

CENT’s Segment Wise Performance Details

Net sales for the Pet segment was $435.3 million, indicating a 9.8% decrease compared with the previous year due to an extra week in the prior-year quarter. Organic net sales fell 13.6%, excluding the impact of the TDBBS acquisition. 

The segment’s adjusted operating income was $34.6 million, down from $47.8 million reported in the prior-year quarter, due to lower volume and the timing of expenses related to productivity and commercial initiatives. Meanwhile, the adjusted operating margin contracted 190 basis points to 8%.

In the Garden segment, net sales of $234.2 million declined 12.4% from the year-ago period, primarily due to an extra week in the prior-year quarter. Organic net sales fell 11.2%, excluding the impact of the sale of the independent garden channel distribution business.

The segment’s adjusted operating loss of $24.9 million declined from an adjusted operating loss of $5.3 million reported in the prior year quarter, due to lower volume as well as the grass seed inventory impairment.

CENT’s Financial Health Snapshot

Central Garden & Pet ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $753.6 million, long-term debt of $1,189.8 million and shareholders’ equity of $1,555.7 million, excluding the non-controlling interest of $1.9 million. The company repurchased about 270,032 shares or $9 million in the quarter under review. Management expects capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 to be in the range of $60-$70 million.

Sneak Peek Into CENT’s Outlook

Central Garden & Pet estimates fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings to be $2.20 per share or more. This forecast implies deflationary pressures in certain commodity sectors, shifting consumer behavior amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties and a challenging brick-and-mortar retail environment. 

For the first quarter of fiscal 2025, CENT expects an adjusted loss of 5 cents per share or more compared with adjusted earnings of 1 cent in the same period of fiscal 2024.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -166.67% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Central Garden has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Central Garden has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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